Comments for Jonathan Spyer

Comment on The Failure of Western Policy on Syria by Jonathan Karmi

Jonathan Karmi — Tue, 28 May 2013 16:23:00 +0000

Perhaps it’s no bad thing if the Middle East is ‘Balkanised’. Iraq and Syria were only kept together by brutal dictatorships, while Lebanon has always been a delicate and not always successful balancing act between the different communities with their respective militias. I can sympathise with Western leaders for hesitating before getting drawn into such a potential mess. If the Kurds, the Alawites and maybe even the Druze can come out of this with their own states or autonomous regions, that could be the best recipe for longer-term stability. However a lot more blood will be spilt before that point is reached.

Comment on Is Assad Winning? by Yonatan Karmi

Yonatan Karmi — Fri, 03 May 2013 12:58:14 +0000

The Syrian civil war raises a whole stack of questions. How many Arab civilian lives have to be lost or in danger to justify Western intervention ? Clearly 100,000 is not enough. How many Arabs can be killed by chemical weapons before the West does anything ? Clearly 50 is not enough. It’s a difficult moral issue, because why should any, say, American soldier have to die, because these barbarian brutes are slaughtering each other.

Maybe the best policy is indeed to arm some of the rebels to create an equilibrium in the civil war, so that it drags on for a long time thereby weakening all the combatant parties, including Iran and Hizballah. Not good for innocent civilians, but as things stand at the moment, if either the Sunnis or the Alawites get the upper hand they’ll inflict terrible bloodshed on the losing side.

Comment on Is Assad Winning? by Is Assad Winning?

Is Assad Winning? — Fri, 03 May 2013 11:59:48 +0000

[...] Jerusalem Post, 3/5 The imminent demise of the Assad regime has been announced on numerous occasions over the last two years of civil war in Syria. But the regime has held on. Despite some advances by rebels in the south … Continue reading → [...]

Comment on The Kurds are for the Kurds by Strategic Intelligence Assessment for Syria (3) – State of Play Part II | Red (team) Analysis

Mon, 29 Apr 2013 15:54:52 +0000

[...] life, thus benefiting for once from the bounty of their land, in terms of oil and crops (Spyer, March 9 2013). The Syrian Kurds’ objective was again reasserted by Sipan Hamo, commander in chief of the [...]

Comment on Muslim Brotherhood Presides over Growing Chaos in Egypt by Yonatan Karmi

Yonatan Karmi — Sat, 13 Apr 2013 10:29:14 +0000

This summarises very neatly the travails of a backward, poorly-educated society with limited natural resources and a high birth rate. It makes you wonder how it’s going to end. Not well, I suspect.

Comment on Iran’s Silent War in the Gulf by Iran’s Silent War in the Gulf | The Grendel Report

Iran’s Silent War in the Gulf | The Grendel Report — Sat, 06 Apr 2013 23:57:05 +0000

[...] http://jonathanspyer.com/2013/04/06/irans-silent-war-in-the-gulf/ [...]

Comment on Iran’s Silent War in the Gulf by Iran’s Silent War in the Gulf

Iran’s Silent War in the Gulf — Sat, 06 Apr 2013 07:15:47 +0000

[...] Jerusalem Post, 5/4: A series of trials currently under way in the neighboring Gulf states of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain offer a glimpse into the ongoing, silent war being waged by Iran against its regional rivals. Bahrain is of particular … Continue reading → [...]

Comment on In Syria, Western Illusions Lead to Ill-Advised Action by Dominick

Dominick — Sat, 30 Mar 2013 12:34:40 +0000

Are the Russians supporting Assad to the same extent that the US and Europe are supporting the rebels? Do they have special forces on the ground?

Comment on In Syria, Western Illusions Lead to Ill-Advised Action by In Syria, Western Illusions Lead to Ill-Advised Action

In Syria, Western Illusions Lead to Ill-Advised Action — Sat, 23 Mar 2013 16:14:39 +0000

[...] PJ Media, 23/3: The signs are now unmistakable: both openly and behind the scenes, a major Western effort to bring the Syrian civil war to a close with the defeat of the Assad regime is now underway. This is being … Continue reading → [...]

Comment on War over the Ruins by Yonatan Karmi

Yonatan Karmi — Fri, 08 Mar 2013 19:45:20 +0000

Thanks for this clarification of the Akashat incident. I was aware of the highly artificial nature of the Iraqi-Syrian border from reading the Chris Ryan book “The One That Got Away”. His reception on reaching Syria was not much worse than if he’d been captured in Iraq. It will be interesting whether the Syria Civil War does indeed spread. I suspect that the Iraqis are war-weary and nothing much will happen there. Lebanon could be different though. There are a lot scores to be settled with Hizballah, if it reaches that stage.